September 5, 2023

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"Summary"

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This emergency draft version of the Report on Risk Factors and Indicators of the Crime of Genocide in the Republic of Artsakh: Applying the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes to the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict is being released ahead of schedule due to the rapidly intensifying humanitarian crisis in the Republic of Artsakh that is being caused by the Azerbaijani blockade of the country since 12 December 2022.

The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention hopes that this report will contribute to global resolve to protect the lives and the identity of the Armenians of Artsakh, prevent a Second Armenian Genocide, pressure Azerbaijan to accept self-determination for the people of Artsakh, and initiate a long-overdue process of transformative justice in the region that allows Armenians and Azeris to voice their historical grievances and find common ground around accountability, peace-building, and human security.

The Report uses the United Nations’s Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes to outline and analyze (in detail) the risk factors and indicators for atrocity crimes, with a special focus on the crime of genocide. We have chosen to focus on the crime of genocide because the evidence in this report points to the existence of several serious red flags for genocide, typical genocidal patterns, and evidence of the special intent to commit that crime.